Argentina: Oilseeds and Products Update

Post reduces its MY 2021/2022 soybean production estimate to 41 million metric tons (MMT), 4 MMT below the official USDA estimate. Despite rains in January which forestalled greater losses, high temperatures and dryness in December and early January caused considerable damage in key growing areas and depleted soil moisture reserves. Severe drought affecting the soybean crop in Paraguay will limit Argentine imports to 2.2 MMT, less than half of MY 2020/2021 imports. In addition to decreased supply from the prior two factors, slow farmer selling is expected to reduce the pace of Argentine soybean crushing in the first half of 2022 with Post projecting MY 2021/2022 crush at 39.4 MMT, matching the official USDA estimate. Soybean exports are reduced to 3 MMT, 700,000 MT below the official USDA estimate. Post maintains its production estimate for sunflowerseed and raises its peanut estimate as these crops are grown in regions which have been less affected by drought and are naturally more drought resistant.