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As a result of the increase in the 2025/26 production estimate, the 2025/26 wheat import forecast is reduced to 1 million tons.
Pakistan is an important market for U.S. food and agricultural-related products, with U.S. exports surpassing $910 million in 2024.
Ethiopia’s coffee production for marketing year 2025/26 is projected to reach 11.6 million 60-kg bags, supported by favorable weather, increased productivity from rejuvenated aging trees, and the use of improved inputs such as high-yielding seedlings.
Post forecasts Ethiopia’s wheat production to reach 6.5 million metric tons (MT) in MY 2025/26, driven by improved yields and expanded irrigated farmland. In the same period, wheat imports are projected to decline by 24 percent to 1.3 million MT.
Sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 6.6 million tons, which is 13.7 percent higher than the 2024/25 estimated production. This increase is based on expectations for improved sugar content and average cane yield.
Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.
Following the resumption of genetically engineered soybean imports after two years, soybean imports are forecast to rebound to 2 million tons in 2025/26. With a slight increase in domestic production expected, rapeseed imports are forecast to decline.
Driven by a minor increase in area and assuming average yields, cotton production is expected to increase somewhat in 2025/26. With expectations for continued strong export demand, domestic use is forecast to grow modestly in 2025/26.
In February 2025, Ethiopia’s National Variety Release Committee (NVRC) approved the commercial release of three TELA maize hybrid varieties.
U.S. soybean exports to Pakistan have resumed after Pakistan removed a 2-year functional ban. On February 18, 2025, Pakistan received its first U.S. soybean shipment of 65,000 tons, and U.S. exporters will soon ship approximately 200,000 more tons.
