Browse Data and Analysis

The following is part of a series of reports prepared by the Agricultural Trade Offices (ATOs) in Monterrey and Mexico City, to provide background on local and regional markets of interest for current and prospective exporters of U.S. agriculture, food and beverage products.

FAS/Tokyo estimates lower wheat and barley production in Marketing Year (MY)2024/25 from the previous year as unfavorable weather conditions and disease outbreak have reduced yields in main production regions.

The outlook for Mexican grain production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is higher year-on-year for corn, rice, and sorghum based on higher-than-average precipitation and a gradual recovery from exceptional drought conditions.

The retail industry in Japan remained stable despite the continued strength of the U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen. To drive demand, retailers have strategically targeted the younger generation who seek easy-to-prepare, frozen, and ready-to-eat foods.

On August 27, 2024, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) registered geographical indication (GI) protection for Pineapple Huaymun from Thailand, which is the third Thai GI item registered in Japan.

Throughout summer 2024, Japan has been grappling with a table rice shortage resulting in empty supermarket as demand outpaced production for the last three years causing stocks to deplete to their lowest levels in over 20 years.

FAS/Tokyo forecasts cattle inventory expands in 2025 on greater cow beginning stocks and a moderate pace of slaughtering from 2024.

In 2025, high domestic meat demand and lower prices of animal feed for both cattle and swine are expected to drive up overall cattle, beef, pig crop, and pork production. Despite relatively high inflation levels for food products, beef consumption is expected to grow as consumers shift purchases to more affordable meat cuts.

Post forecasts production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 0.85 million 480-lb bales, a similar level as in MY 2023/24. The planting area is expected to decrease due to farmers switching to more profitable crops. Constraints on planted area and yield include limited seed technology, high input costs, extreme temperatures, and drought.

Mexico is the sixth largest poultry producer and fifth largest consumer globally. In 2025 production is forecast to grow as higher private investments in poultry sector and improved feed prices are expected to boost industry-wide productivity.

FAS/Tokyo projects that in 2024 as well as 2025 Japan’s annual poultry production will expand to meet strong demand for domestically produced chicken.