Browse Data and Analysis

In 2021, the Brazilian foodservice industry reached revenues of BRL 460 billion (USD85.2 billion), a growth of 26 percent compared to 2020. Although many challenges are still present, the forecast for 2022 is at 18 percent growth compared to 2021.

Post forecasts an increase in cattle production by 2.8 percent in 2022 and one percent in 2023, driven by global demand, elevated beef prices, and a general trend of expansion in the sector. Nevertheless, increasing production costs, especially feed prices, inflation, and unstable weather are expected to pose challenges to cattle ranchers.

FAS Manila forecasts demand for dairy products to increase 3 percent in 2023, the same percentage of increase as 2022, with a total demand of 3 million metric tons (MT) in liquid milk equivalent (LME). The Philippines imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement, as domestic production cannot meet demand. Following demand increases, dairy imports will recover in 2023 as the economy improves, most of the population is vaccinated, and customers return to restaurants.

An overview of Basic and Prime Commodities as defined by the Price Act or "An Act Providing Protection to Consumers by Stabilizing the Prices of Basic Necessities and Prime Commodities and by prescribing measures against Undue Price Increases during Emergency Situations and Like Occasions" and tariff and value added tax rates applied to the various food and agricultural products.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) continue to collaborate on the Renewable Energy Program for the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector (REP AFS) to undertake programs aimed at boosting the country’s energy and food security.

Post increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 42.8 million hectares for 2021/22, up previously from 42.5 million hectares. Brazil continues to expand its area due to record high domestic soybean prices. Post forecasts a record harvest at 148.5 million metric tons (MMT), increased from 144 MMT previously with planting starting earlier this year as well.

The Philippines supplies only one percent of its total dairy requirement, which makes it a competitive market for imported dairy products. The United States and New Zealand are the top two suppliers, the U.S. being the leader. Post sees overall dairy imports recovering in 2022, as the economy reopens, most of the population becomes vaccinated, and business operations expand, all of which will accelerate dairy consumption.

Post forecasts 2022/23 cotton area planted at 1.65 million hectares (ha), an increase of just over one percent from the 1.63 million ha cotton area estimate for 2021/22. Post’s forecast is based on expectations that despite challenges, such as risings costs and tightening margins, Brazilian producers are optimistic about the crop’s prospects, and eager to continue growing the sector.

Brazil’s Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 sugarcane crop is estimated at 621 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of eight percent compared to the final estimate for MY 2021/22 (576 MMT), supported by better weather conditions vis-à-vis the previous year. Sugar prices remain attractive and sugar-ethanol plants have focused on sugar production as opposed to ethanol. Brazilian exports for MY 2022/23 are estimated at 28.2 MMT, raw value, an increase of 2.25 MMT relative to the previous season.

FAS Manila adjusted marketing year (MY) 2023 raw sugar production down to 1.85 million metric tons (MT). The weather disturbances and low fertilizer application due to soaring fertilizer prices drastically affected sugarcane production in the Philippines.

FAS Manila revised MY 2022/23 milled rice production downward to 11.975 million MT both because of a 3 percent expected reduction in yields as soaring fertilizer prices result in significantly reduced application and because of the effects of Typhoon Noru (Local name: Karding).

With the further relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, increased consumer mobility resulted in higher foot traffic in restaurants and hotels. Consumers have become more confident in dining in restaurants.