Browse Data and Analysis

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, FAS Cairo forecasts fresh orange exports to reach 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) up from 1.3 MMT in MY 2021/22.Post attributes the increase in exports to higher production amid favorable climate conditions.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

This report is an update to GAIN report number EG2022-0022. The report includes English translation of the National Food Safety Authority (NFSA) Decision of Board of Directors No. 6/2022 concerning the binding technical basis for maximum residue levels (MRLs) for chemical contaminants in food.

In 2022, the Egyptian government announced that feed costs increased by 40 to 45 percent. Beef prices also increased by 15 to 20 percent, discouraging per capita consumption. Prices are expected to continue increasing in response to the ongoing devaluation of the Egyptian pound and complex import procedures. Imports of Indian water buffalo increased to reach 150 thousand MT, while Brazilian beef imports are still limited.

The biotechnology regulatory system in Ukraine is still not fully developed, but the country is gradually adjusting its domestic policies to align with the European Union’s regulations. Agricultural biotechnology is a disputed item in Ukraine. Currently, no GE events are officially approved for agricultural and food production.

Egypt requires a biosafety legal framework. Without one, the country cannot move forward in the area of agricultural biotechnology. The absence of a legal framework impedes field trials, as well as the commercial use of genetically engineered (GE) crops.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

In 2022, industries report a 35 to 40 percent increase in cultivation costs to reach almost $28,000 per hectare. The increase in costs is due to the challenges of US dollar liquidity and high inflation. In MY 2022/2021, production is expected to reach 1.48 MMT and exports are forecasted at 180,000 MT. In 2022, Egypt added Sri-Lanka and Cameron to the list of importing countries.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has adversely impacted the global economy, and Egypt too has felt the wave of effects. Russia’s war on Ukraine has relentlessly disrupted international trade of grains and soybeans as well as other commodities pounding a global economy that had since been improving robustly from the COVID-19 pandemic.

On August 22nd, 2022, Ukraine adopted the official criteria for determining the significant impact of the proposed veterinary-sanitary measure or the approved emergency veterinary-sanitary measure on the export opportunities of foreign countries.

FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (July – June) at 11.0 MMT, down from the previous marketing year estimate of 11.5 MMT. Egypt was able to secure a steady supply of wheat through diversification of wheat origins whether through tenders or implementing direct purchasing of wheat from several countries.