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New Zealand continues to be an important market for U.S. agricultural products. In 2021, despite logistical and other challenges because of COVID-19, New Zealand’s imports continued to grow to a record US$ 625 million of U.S. agricultural products.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

The biotechnology regulatory system in Ukraine is still not fully developed, but the country is gradually adjusting its domestic policies to align with the European Union’s regulations. Agricultural biotechnology is a disputed item in Ukraine. Currently, no GE events are officially approved for agricultural and food production.

The New Zealand Productivity Commission submitted a report to the Government of New Zealand recommending that a review should be done on regulation of genetic modification to ensure it is fit for purpose and supports domestic innovation. Other than that, there have been no recent significant official changes to the genetically engineered (GE) policies established by the New Zealand government.

The outlook for the 2022/23 apple season in New Zealand is much more optimistic with the opening of international borders following COVID-19 restrictions. While the last two apple harvests were severely impacted by the lack of labor, the return of overseas workers under the Recognized Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme is expected to help allow a recovery in production, with the forecast up 12 percent from the previous year’s estimated crop.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

New Zealand milk production is forecasted to fall slightly in 2023. Although milk prices are at extremely high levels and expected to remain elevated, a number of issues are limiting the production response. This includes a slowly declining national herd, and also that on-farm inflation is expected to remain high as a result of the weak NZ dollar impacting imported input prices, as well as strong global fuel prices.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

On August 22nd, 2022, Ukraine adopted the official criteria for determining the significant impact of the proposed veterinary-sanitary measure or the approved emergency veterinary-sanitary measure on the export opportunities of foreign countries.

Ukraine’s chicken meat production is expected to decline by over 8 percent in 2022. The industry is experiencing significant problems with inputs procurement, in-country, and export logistics, domestic consumer base decrease, and labor force shortages.

Both cattle and swine numbers are expected to decrease significantly in 2022, driven by the war-related economic downturn. Pork production is expected to show a decrease, while 2022 beef production is expected to show a short-term spike. Production of both proteins is expected to drop in 2023.

The Covid-19 pandemic had a major effect on the Hotel, Restaurant, Institutional (HRI) sector in New Zealand. This is especially true of the tourism and hospitality sectors which have been severely hit by the closed international borders.