Browse Data and Analysis

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

The biotechnology regulatory system in Ukraine is still not fully developed, but the country is gradually adjusting its domestic policies to align with the European Union’s regulations. Agricultural biotechnology is a disputed item in Ukraine. Currently, no GE events are officially approved for agricultural and food production.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) regulations allow the importation of biotech plant products, but they are required to be labeled if they contain more than one percent genetically engineered (GE) plant ingredients. As a result, many retail packed food importers do not import biotech foods due to concerns that biotech labeling could jeopardize their product image. However, Saudi Arabia imports large quantities of biotech U.S. corn, soybeans, and their products.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

Saudi Arabia’s barley imports for the first six months of MY 2022/23 (July – Dec. 2022) are estimated at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of six percent compared to the same period last year. Post’s current projection for total barley imports for MY 2022/23 is 4.5 MMT, which is a decrease of four percent compared to the USDA official estimate of 4.7 MMT. Unless the price of barley drastically decreases, Post anticipates demand will remain low throughout MY 2022/23.

Saudi Arabia was a 24th largest market ($1.34 million) for U.S. food and agricultural products last year. A return to pre-Covid living and working conditions are invigorating U.S. agricultural exports to the Kingdom in 2022. U.S. Customs data for January – August 2022 shows an 11 percent increase in U.S. agricultural exports to Saudi Arabia compared to the same period in 2021.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

On August 22nd, 2022, Ukraine adopted the official criteria for determining the significant impact of the proposed veterinary-sanitary measure or the approved emergency veterinary-sanitary measure on the export opportunities of foreign countries.

U.S. exports of consumer-oriented food products to Saudi Arabia decreased four percent in 2021, compared to 2020, to approximately $535 million mainly due to shipping issues (e.g., fewer cargo ships, higher costs, etc.) throughout the year. In June 2022, the Saudi government lifted all COVID-19 restrictions allowing the food service sector to return to pre-pandemic operations while also fully reopening the country to foreign visitors.

Ukraine’s chicken meat production is expected to decline by over 8 percent in 2022. The industry is experiencing significant problems with inputs procurement, in-country, and export logistics, domestic consumer base decrease, and labor force shortages.

Both cattle and swine numbers are expected to decrease significantly in 2022, driven by the war-related economic downturn. Pork production is expected to show a decrease, while 2022 beef production is expected to show a short-term spike. Production of both proteins is expected to drop in 2023.

Post projects Ukraine’s walnut production decreasing to 95,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 based on a combination of suboptimal weather conditions and some production areas in Russian occupied areas. Exports were slow for two consecutive marketing years (MY) in a row: MY2020/21 – because of quality issues and administrative barriers by Turkey; and MY2021/22 – due to constrained logistics stemming from Russia’s invasion.