Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/San José projects marketing year 2025/2026 coffee production to decline by 10 percent as a result of the effects of the biennial coffee production cycle, after a high production year in 2024/2025.

FAS Mumbai forecasts marketing year (MY) 2025/26 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at six million 60-kilogram bags. A dry spell during January and February, followed by strong winds and excessive pre-monsoon rains in March and May,

FAS Mumbai forecasts marketing year (MY) 2024/25 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at 6.2 million 60-kilogram bags, four percent higher than the previous forecast due to plentiful southwest monsoon rains that will improve Robusta crop yields.

FAS/San José projects marketing year 2024/25 coffee production to remain near record low levels, as exchange rate challenges, persistent labor shortages, and above average precipitation forecasts prevent the sector from rebounding.

FAS India forecasts marketing year (MY) 2024/25 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at 6 million 60-kilogram bags. Deficit pre-monsoon rains (Mar/May) are expected to negatively impact yields, as fruit setting drops significantly in major growing regions.

FAS Mumbai forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (October-September) India coffee production at 5.9 million 60-kilogram bags, two percent higher than the previous estimate. Dry conditions from October through December are expected to result in higher Arabica yields, with less incidence of berry droppings and damage.

FAS/San José is projecting a small marketing year 2023/24 production increase to 1.44 million 60-kilogram bags, based on positive initial flowering, expected appropriate fertilization levels, and better overall condition of farms.

FAS Mumbai (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 coffee production (October-September) at 5.8 million 60-kilogram bags.

FAS India forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at 6.25 million 60-kilogram bags, nine percent higher than the official USDA estimate on above normal southwest monsoon rains (Jun/Sep) expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta varieties in major growing regions.

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 coffee production (Oct/Sep) to increase by 3.8 percent to 5.74 million 60-kilogram bags. Above normal pre-monsoon rains coupled with expectations of an early onset of normal monsoon are expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta in major growing regions.

FAS/San José projects marketing year 2022/23 coffee production at 1,365,000 60-kilogram bags, as production volume rebounds from a 50-year low in marketing year 2021/22 when higher rates of fungal disease compounded the impact of a gradual downward trend in production.

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee production (October/September) at 5.53 million 60-kilogram bags. Unseasonal rains in November are expected to negatively impact Arabica crop yields and delay the harvest by at least two weeks, which will be offset by higher yields of Robusta leading to a six percent increase in overall coffee yields.