Browse Data and Analysis

Ethiopia’s coffee production for marketing year 2025/26 is projected to reach 11.6 million 60-kg bags, supported by favorable weather, increased productivity from rejuvenated aging trees, and the use of improved inputs such as high-yielding seedlings.

Despite market volatility, and unstable policies, the European Union remains the largest importer of Tanzanian green coffee beans, buying six times as many beans as the United States.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts a 13.3 percent increase in Kenya’s coffee production in the marketing year (MY) 2025/26 to 850,000 bags due to improved farm practices, as farmers respond to high prices in MY 2024/25.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts Uganda’s coffee production for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26 to increase by 2.61 percent, reaching 6.88 million 60-kilogram bags (green bean equivalent).

Post forecasts Tanzania’s coffee production at 1.5 million bags (60-kilogram) in the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, up from 1.4 million bags in MY 2023/24, due to increased production from recently rehabilitated plantations.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts Uganda’s coffee production in the Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 to reach 6.9 million bags (60 kg), an increase of 40,000 bags from the previous year, due to adoption of good agricultural practices, targeted interventions to combat pest and disease outbreaks, and maturation of new high-yielding seedlings planted in recent years.

FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 coffee production at 750,000 bags (60 kilograms), a 6.3 percent decrease from the previous marketing year, due to stagnation of harvested area and yield decline.

MY 2023/24 coffee production is forecast to increase 21 percent to 1.35 million bags due to a recovery from drought conditions and trees entering the most productive period of their three-year yield cycle.

Ethiopia is Africa’s largest coffee producer and the world’s fifth largest exporter of Arabica coffee. Coffee is Ethiopia’s number one source of export revenue generating about 30-35 percent of the country’s total export earnings.

Kenya’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 coffee production is forecast to increase 6.7 percent to 800,000 bags due to a recovery from drought conditions and higher fertilizer application.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts Uganda’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 coffee production will increase 4 percent to 6.85 million 60 kilogram bags due to good rainfall and the maturation of new high-yielding Robusta seedlings planted in 2019.

Coffee is Ethiopia’s main export commodity, contributing to the livelihoods of more than 15 million smallholder farmers and other actors in the coffee sector. Ethiopia’s coffee production for MY 2022/23 (Oct-Sep) is forecast at 8.25 million 60-kilogram bags (495,000 MT).