Browse Data and Analysis

The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO)/Sao Paulo estimate for the Brazilian coffee production for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 (July-June) was revised downward to 62.6 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 1.7 million bags relative to the previous estimate, due to lower output in Arabica production.

Excessive rains and cloudiness in the last two years have suppressed Colombia's coffee production. In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post forecasts Colombian production at 12.6 million bags of green bean equivalent (GBE) coffee. Although local prices remain high, weather conditions are expected to continue affecting crop productivity.

Honduran Coffee Production is expected to reach 5.4 million 60-kilogram bags in marketing year (MY) 2021/22, a seventeen percent reduction from the previous year. Heavy weather conditions for a higher incidence of leaf rust are forecast and are expected to impact production directly.

ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts the Brazilian coffee production for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 (July-June) at 64.3 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 11 percent compared to the last crop. Although Arabica trees are on the on-year of the biennial production cycle, production should be constrained by adverse weather conditions in 2021.

Guatemala maintains its 305,000 Ha of coffee, but harvested area is slightly reduced due to higher production costs, both inputs and labor. Production costs raised 32 percent as fertilizer prices continue doubling and migration is negatively impacting labor availability.

Mexico coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is projected at 3.84 million 60 kg/bags, on optimal weather conditions during the fruit development stage in the top producing states that will improve yields, and sustained strong global prices that will incentivize optimal harvest.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Colombia's coffee production is forecast to remain unchanged at 13 million bags of green bean equivalent (GBE). Although weather conditions are expected to be normal, crop productivity has the potential to be negatively impacted as a result of lower fertilizer use due to rising prices.

Coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (April to March) is forecast at 354,000 60-kg bags of Green Bean Equivalent (GBE) basis, an increase of 36 percent over the MY 2021/2022 estimate of 261,000 60-kg bags, due an increase in expected area harvested and improved pruning techniques.

El Salvador’s coffee production is expected to reach 639,000 sixty-kg bags in marketing year (MY) 2021/22. The Salvadoran coffee sector continues to struggle mainly due to low international prices, climate change, continued coffee leaf rust, and a lack of a long-term strategy that has hindered investment at the farm level. The MY2022/23 crop is forecast to slightly decrease to 619,000 sixty-kg bags.

FAS/San José projects marketing year 2022/23 coffee production at 1,365,000 60-kilogram bags, as production volume rebounds from a 50-year low in marketing year 2021/22 when higher rates of fungal disease compounded the impact of a gradual downward trend in production.

FAS/Managua projects marketing year 2022/23 coffee production unchanged from the previous year at 2.7 million 60-kilogram bags, as political and economic turmoil in Nicaragua are expected to continue limiting investment in the sector despite strong export prices for the marketing year 2021/22 crop.

Coffee production in MY 2022/2023 is forecast at 4.03 million 60-kilogram bags, an increase of two percent from the previous year. Peru’s coffee exports in MY 2022/2023 are forecast at 3.95 million 60-kilogram bags, a slight increase from the previous year.