Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (October 1 – September 30), 6 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2024/25. The increased production forecast is based on seasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing states during MY 2024/25 and an expected recovery of the planted area in MY 2025/26.

In market year (MY) 2025/2026, FAS Bogota (Post) forecasts Colombia’s sugar production to recover to 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) due to improved weather conditions from the weakening of the La Niña phenomenon and expected normal weather patterns, positively impacting sugarcane yields and sucrose content.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October 1 – September 30).

In marketing year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia's sugar production is forecast to remain unchanged from the previous MY at 2.25 million metric tons (MMT) owing in part to the onset of the El Niño phenomenon and its dry weather conditions in the second half of 2023.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.5 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October 1 – September 30), 13 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2023/24.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.95 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (October 1 – September 30), 8 percent higher than in MY 2022/23 due to reduced fertilizer prices, but below MY 2021/22 production due to continued widespread drought.

Mexico’s sugar production is forecast at 6.25 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) in marketing year 2023/24 (October-September), an increase of nearly 3 percent compared to MY 2022/23 based on lower fertilizer costs and a return to average weather conditions.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Colombia’s sugar production is forecast to increase 2.2 percent to 2.35 million metric tons (MT), due to the end of "La Niña" weather phenomena and the beginning of "El Niño" weather phenomena.

FAS-Mexico forecasts a nearly 6 percent decrease in sugar production to 6.16 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) during marketing year (MY) 2022/23 due to lower rainfall levels and higher input prices. Production for MY2021/22 increased by 8.2 percent to 6.56 MMT-RV, mainly driven by an abundance of rainfall during critical growing months, lower input costs, and historically high prices creating incentives to maintain planted area.

Mexico sugar production and exports are forecasted forecasted marginally higher for 2022/23.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Colombia's sugar production is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.3 million metric tons (MT). Although weather conditions are expected to return to normal, crop productivity could be affected by lower fertilizer use due to rising prices.

Sugar production in Mexico for marketing year 2021/22 is forecast to rebound from last year’s drought affected season, after ample rain and optimal growing conditions have been observed in much of the country’s cane producing states.