Browse Data and Analysis

For marketing year 2025/26, Indonesian sugarcane and plantation white sugar productions are forecast to further increase to 35.0 million metric tons (MMT) and 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) respectively.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (October 1 – September 30), 6 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2024/25. The increased production forecast is based on seasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing states during MY 2024/25 and an expected recovery of the planted area in MY 2025/26.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October 1 – September 30).

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.5 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October 1 – September 30), 13 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2023/24.

Despite area expansion by private sugar mills, a long, drawn-out El Nino in 2023/24 reduced both sugarcane and plantation white sugar production. The ongoing impact of El Nino will be immediately followed by the onset of the 2024 dry season combined with a predicted La Nina at the end of 2024, which are forecast to further reduce sugarcane and plantation white sugar production.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.95 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (October 1 – September 30), 8 percent higher than in MY 2022/23 due to reduced fertilizer prices, but below MY 2021/22 production due to continued widespread drought.

State-owned Indonesian energy company Pertamina will launch a new gasoline product containing 5 percent ethanol in late June 2023, utilizing ethanol derived from domestic sugarcane.

Mexico’s sugar production is forecast at 6.25 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) in marketing year 2023/24 (October-September), an increase of nearly 3 percent compared to MY 2022/23 based on lower fertilizer costs and a return to average weather conditions.

Private sugar mills expansion leads to increased production in 2022/2023. El Nino, which usually increases sugar content in sugarcane and continues area expansion by private sugar mills is forecast to further increase plantation white sugar production in 2023/24 to 2.6 million metric tons (MMT).

FAS-Mexico forecasts a nearly 6 percent decrease in sugar production to 6.16 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) during marketing year (MY) 2022/23 due to lower rainfall levels and higher input prices. Production for MY2021/22 increased by 8.2 percent to 6.56 MMT-RV, mainly driven by an abundance of rainfall during critical growing months, lower input costs, and historically high prices creating incentives to maintain planted area.

Mexico sugar production and exports are forecasted forecasted marginally higher for 2022/23.

Private sugar mill expansion and higher rainfall as a result of La Nina weather patterns are expected to increase sugarcane yields, leading to increased sugar production in 2022/23. Despite the expected increase in production, imports of raw sugar are also forecast to increase, mainly due to higher sugar demand from the growing food and beverage industry.