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China’s MY 2025/26 sugar production is forecast at 11.5 MMT, up 500,000 MT from the MY 2024/25 estimate, as planted areas continue to rise and weather conditions remain favorable.

MY 2025/26 sugar production is expected to further increase 2 percent from MY 2024/25. MY 2024/25 sugar demand by industrial uses is likely to decline significantly due to the Chinese ban on Thai sugar syrup exports.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) forecasts MY 2024/25 sugar production to increase to 10.2 MMT. MY 2023/24 sugar exports are likely to decline 26 percent due to competition from Brazil. Post expects sugar exports to double in MY 2024/25 from MY 2023/24 in anticipation of tight exportable sugar supplies in the major exporting countries.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 11 MMT, up 600,000 MT as acreage for both cane and beet are up and competition crops are less profitable.

MY 2024/25 sugar production is expected to recover from a 20 percent slump in MY 2023/24. Sugar consumption growth will likely decelerate in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25, following Thailand’s slow economic recovery and shrinking sugar demand by non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers due to the progressive sugar tax.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 10.4 MMT as the planted areas for both cane and beet are expected to rise. Given sugar prices are expected to trend down, China’s MY 2024/25 sugar consumption estimate is also forecast to increase to 15.7 MMT.

A drought during the intensive growth stage impacted MY2023/24 sugarcane production and led Post to lower the sugar production forecast by 15 percent from MY2022/23.

MY 2022/23 China’s sugar imports declined due to escalating world prices. Following suit, Chinese sugar prices spiked at the highest levels since 2012.

MY 2022/23 cane sugar production is estimated at 7.92 MMT, revised down 1.08 MMT from the USDA official estimate due to lower-than-normal rainfall in Guangxi, China’s largest sugar producing province. Sugar consumption has begun to rebound since after the removal of COVID-related restrictions. As China’s sugar imports are curbed by high world prices, stocks are likely to decline.

Sugar production in MY2022/23 and MY2023/24 is still far below record production levels due to reduced sugarcane acreage.

China’s estimated MY2021/22 sugar imports and stocks are revised upward, while consumption is revised downward due to low world prices and COVID-related policy impacts. Assuming beet acreage rebounds in Inner Mongolia, the MY2022/23 sugar production remains forecasted at 10 MMT.

Sugar production recovered to normal levels of around 10 million metric tons in MY2021/22 and is likely to further increase by 3 percent in MY2022/23. Sugar production, however, remains far below record production levels due to limited acreage.