Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2025/26 sugar production at 1.5 million metric tons, a 17 percent decrease from Post's previous MY estimate. The main factor is uncertainty over the EU’s trade policy toward Ukraine past June 2025.

Despite an anticipated increase in sugarcane production, Argentina’s sugar exports for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 are forecast to decline to 515,000 metric tons (raw value), driven by significantly lower beginning stocks and more favorable returns from ethanol production under the domestic biofuels blend mandate.

Ukraine established a self-limiting trade measure for sugar to create long term trust with its neighbor.

MY2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 1.8 MMT, similar to FAS/Kyiv's previous MY estimate. Sugar beet production area will remain steady across MY2023/24 and MY2024/25, which could be an indicator that the sugar industry is adjusting to a “new normal.”

Argentine sugar exports in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 are projected at 625,000 tons raw value, the largest in the past 15 years due to the combination of expected large production and large stocks of sugar passed in from the previous marketing year.

MY2023/24 sugar production is forecast at 1.5 MMT, a 13 percent increase compared to the previous MY estimate, as Ukraine returns to pre-war (CY2021) production areas of sugar beets.

Post projects Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 sugarcane production to drop to 18.9 million metric tons (MMT) due to dry weather and high heat during the southern hemisphere summer.

The MY 2022/23 sugar production forecast is down 23 percent from the previous estimate. Producers face a shrinking domestic market and fluctuating world prices, as well as the strain of conflict with Russia in terms of ensuring production and exports.

Argentine sugar production for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 is forecast at 1.71 million tons, raw value, practically unchanged from the previous year. La Niña weather conditions have limited sugarcane production over the last two years, and output was affected by a severe winter last year and a very dry and hot summer early this year.

Argentine sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2021-2022 is forecast down at 1.55 million tons, raw value, due to early season dryness which is expected to negatively impact yields.

Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 sugar production is forecast at around 1

MY2020/21 sugar production is forecast down to over 1.5 million metric tons, representing another step in a downward trend that has continued over the last three years.