Browse Data and Analysis

MY 2022/23 cane sugar production is estimated at 7.92 MMT, revised down 1.08 MMT from the USDA official estimate due to lower-than-normal rainfall in Guangxi, China’s largest sugar producing province. Sugar consumption has begun to rebound since after the removal of COVID-related restrictions. As China’s sugar imports are curbed by high world prices, stocks are likely to decline.

FAS Manila forecasts marketing year (MY) 2024 raw sugar production at 1.9 million metric tons (MT). Higher prices encouraged more farmers to plant sugarcane and better fertilization is expected to result in higher production. Post expects limited exports to resume in 2024 given high production and high carryover stocks.

Australia’s sugar production is forecast to increase to 4.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, from an estimated 4.2 MMT in MY 2022/23. This increase is due to an expected rise in sugar cane crush to 33.5 MMT in MY 2023/24, from an estimate of 32.6 MMT in the previous year.

Private sugar mills expansion leads to increased production in 2022/2023. El Nino, which usually increases sugar content in sugarcane and continues area expansion by private sugar mills is forecast to further increase plantation white sugar production in 2023/24 to 2.6 million metric tons (MMT).

Sugar production in MY2022/23 and MY2023/24 is still far below record production levels due to reduced sugarcane acreage.