Browse Data and Analysis

China’s estimated MY2021/22 sugar imports and stocks are revised upward, while consumption is revised downward due to low world prices and COVID-related policy impacts. Assuming beet acreage rebounds in Inner Mongolia, the MY2022/23 sugar production remains forecasted at 10 MMT.

Sugar production recovered to normal levels of around 10 million metric tons in MY2021/22 and is likely to further increase by 3 percent in MY2022/23. Sugar production, however, remains far below record production levels due to limited acreage.

FAS Manila adjusted marketing year (MY) 2023 raw sugar production down to 1.85 million metric tons (MT). The weather disturbances and low fertilizer application due to soaring fertilizer prices drastically affected sugarcane production in the Philippines.

FAS/Canberra’s sugar cane production estimate for Australia is revised up for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 to 33 million metric tons (MMT), with the major production areas receiving well above-average rains during harvest which has promoted greater sugar cane growth.

MY 2021/22 estimates for production, trade, and consumption are all revised downward.

Private sugar mill expansion and higher rainfall as a result of La Nina weather patterns are expected to increase sugarcane yields, leading to increased sugar production in 2022/23. Despite the expected increase in production, imports of raw sugar are also forecast to increase, mainly due to higher sugar demand from the growing food and beverage industry.

Post forecasts sugar production in Marketing Year (MY) 2023 to decline by 50,000 MT to 2 million MT, as high fertilizer prices lead to reduced yields. Production for MY 2022 is also lowered to reflect the damage to sugar farms in December 2021 by Typhoon Rai (local name Odette).

Sugar production recovered to normal levels between 10 and 11 million metric tons in MY2021/22 and will remain at those same levels in MY2022/23 due to high fertilizer costs and limited acreage expansion. The recovery in exportable sugar supplies will help boost raw and refined sugar exports in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23.

Australia’s sugar production is forecast to increase to 4.45 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, from an estimated 4.12 MMT in MY 2021/22. This increase is due to an expected rise in sugar cane crush to 32 MMT in MY 2022/23, from an estimate of 30.1 MMT in the previous year.