Browse Data and Analysis

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

After an EU-wide drought in 2022, the EU27 dairy herd is forecast to drop below 20 million head in 2023. This will lead to a continued decrease in milk production and deliveries for factory use despite higher farm gate milk prices. As EU dairy processors continue to favor cheese production, the decrease in milk deliveries will be at the expense of butter and non-fat dry milk (NFDM), and, to a lower extent, lower whole milk powder (WMP) production, despite high world market prices.