Browse Data and Analysis

Argentina’s oilseed sector enters marketing year (MY) 2025/2026 with diverging trajectories across key crops. Soybean area is forecast to contract by nearly one million hectares as producers revert to traditional corn rotations following a soy-heavy year driven by pest concerns.

Japan's vegetable oil and protein feed markets are mature and stable. While surging commodity prices and the shipping crisis impacted Japan's oilseed and product imports in the past, the situation has normalized.

Recovering from weather challenges in the first part of MY 24/25, Post forecasts MY 25/26 Malaysia palm oil production to increase to 18.5 million metric tons (MT).

Australian oilseed production, dominated by canola, is expected to be strong for the fifth consecutive season during the marketing year (MY) 2025/26.

Post forecasts MY 25/26 China soybean production at 19.8 million metric tons (MMT) and imports at 106 MMT. The production forecast is down slightly from MY 24/25 and the import forecast is up 2 percent year over year.

Argentina’s oilseed sector faces a mixed outlook in MY 2024/25, Post lowers soybean production to 49 MMT, impacted by drought but showing signs of recovery, while sunflower (4 MMT) and peanut (1.605 MMT) production remain strong.

Indonesia’s palm oil export estimates for 2024/25 are lowered due to the rollout of the new B40 Biodiesel mandate which is expected to raise domestic industrial palm demand by 2 percent.

Post maintains the previous forecast for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 for Argentina's soybean production at 52 million metric tons (MMT), consistent with the USDA's official estimate.

FAS Kuala Lumpur (Post) projects a slight decrease in palm oil production in Market year (MY) 24/25 to 19.2 million metric tons (MT) on recent weather challenges and lower than average production in the beginning months of the MY. With palm oil at a premium to competing vegetable oils, Post estimates a decrease in exports of approximately 770 thousand MT for MY 24/25.

Soybean production for MY 24/25 is forecast slightly up at 19.9 million metric tons (MMT) based on higher yield and a planted area of 9.95 million hectares (Mha).

Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions.

Post forecasts Malaysia’s palm oil production in MY 24/25 at 19.2 million metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 23/24 projections due to delayed effects of the El Niño season.