Browse Data and Analysis

Recovering from weather challenges in the first part of MY 24/25, Post forecasts MY 25/26 Malaysia palm oil production to increase to 18.5 million metric tons (MT).

Production of oilseeds (including canola, soybeans, and sunflower seeds) is forecast to increase only marginally in MY 2025/26 over the previous marketing year, reaching 25.57 million MT.

FAS Kuala Lumpur (Post) projects a slight decrease in palm oil production in Market year (MY) 24/25 to 19.2 million metric tons (MT) on recent weather challenges and lower than average production in the beginning months of the MY. With palm oil at a premium to competing vegetable oils, Post estimates a decrease in exports of approximately 770 thousand MT for MY 24/25.

Post forecasts Malaysia’s palm oil production in MY 24/25 at 19.2 million metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 23/24 projections due to delayed effects of the El Niño season.

FAS/Ottawa forecasts oilseed crush capacity (the estimated maximum rate of crushing at which a mill can operate continuously while maintaining a proper level of efficiency) reached 12.99 million metric tons (MMT) in March 2024 and will reach 15.14 MMT by the end of the 2025 calendar year, up from 11.23 MMT in 2023.

Dryness persists in scattered growing areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, there is still time for spring precipitation. Meanwhile, most eastern soybean producers await warmer temperatures to dry the heavy-to-adequate snow accumulation.

Post maintains the projections for 2021/22 and updates MY 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook on production resulting from good weather conditions and an improved labor situation.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

Canola ending stocks are forecast to close marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at just 15 percent of the five-year average, driven by reduced yield due to drought and strong global demand for oilseeds. Assuming a return to average yields, canola exports are forecast to nearly double in MY 2022/23, driven by strong global demand for oilseeds and a rebuilding of exportable supplies.

Post revised its MY 2021/22 crude palm oil (CPO) production downward from 18.2 million tons to 18.0 million tons, taking into account the effect of anomalous weather from the super typhoon Rai (a month of rain recorded in one day on December 18 in Peninsular Malaysia) and the continuing acute labor issue the industry has faced since 2019.

Post is adjusting its MY 2021/22 crude palm oil (CPO) production forecast down 1.5 million metric tons (MT) from the USDA Official estimate to 18.2 million MT.

Post estimates Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) production in marketing year (MY) 2020/21 at 19