Browse Data and Analysis

Brazil’s soybean sector is projected to grow in 2025/26, with post revising the total projected planted area to 49.1 million hectares and estimated production reaching 176 million metric tons in 2026, driven by favorable weather and technological advances.

Brazil and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are in the initial stages of potentially developing a dedicated soybean supply chain tailored to meet Chinese sustainability and quality standards.

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

The 2024 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2024 calendar year.

Paraguay’s soybean production is forecast to rebound to 10.9 million metric tons (MMT) in MY2025/26 on improved weather and modest acreage gains, following weather-driven losses the previous year.

Uruguayan soybean production in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast at 3.1 million metric tons (MMT), slightly below the previous year’s record harvest due to a modest reduction in planted area as farmers shift some acreage back to corn.

Argentina’s oilseed sector enters marketing year (MY) 2025/2026 with diverging trajectories across key crops. Soybean area is forecast to contract by nearly one million hectares as producers revert to traditional corn rotations following a soy-heavy year driven by pest concerns.

In the marketing year (MY) 2025/2026, Mexico is forecast to increase its oilseed crush due to rising demand for vegetable oil and animal feed.

Production of oilseeds (including canola, soybeans, and sunflower seeds) is forecast to increase only marginally in MY 2025/26 over the previous marketing year, reaching 25.57 million MT.

Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area to 48.2 million hectares (ha) in the 2025/26 season, up from an estimated 47.3 million ha in 2024/25.

Argentina’s oilseed sector faces a mixed outlook in MY 2024/25, Post lowers soybean production to 49 MMT, impacted by drought but showing signs of recovery, while sunflower (4 MMT) and peanut (1.605 MMT) production remain strong.

Post maintains the previous forecast for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 for Argentina's soybean production at 52 million metric tons (MMT), consistent with the USDA's official estimate.