Browse Data and Analysis

Post New Delhi forecasts total oilseed production to reach 43 million metric tons (MMT) for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26, marking a slight increase. For the first time, rapeseed production is expected to surpass soybean production, driven by improved price realization.

The installation of Bangladesh’s Interim Government in August 2024, has led to a renewed focus on macroeconomic stability, which will enable increased exports to the market as restrictions on Letters of Credit ease as foreign currency reserves stabilize.

In October 2024, the National Biosafety Committee (NBC) authorized imports of genetically engineered (GE) soybeans for food, feed, and processing. GE soybean imports are expected to resume in 2025, boosting prospects that the 1.5-million-ton import forecast for 2024/25 will be achieved.

India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October-September) is forecast to reach 41.9 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal drop from MY2023/2024 estimate of 42.7 MMT due weaker prices for Indian producers, limited agricultural input availability, and weather trends.

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding implementation, in January 2024 the government approved a system allowing for the resumption of genetically engineered commodity imports.

Due to the recent ban on genetically engineered (GE) commodity imports, the 2022/23 soybean import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 1.2 million tons. With the lower expected soybean imports, 2022/23 crush and soybean meal output is reduced accordingly.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is expected to extend its momentum and reach 42.1 million metric tons (MMT), a one percent increase over the MY 2021/22 crop. Both rising animal feed demand and the anticipated growth in oilseed supply will further increase oil meal production by two percent to 20.7 million metric tons.

Edible oil prices have been trending higher and are now increasingly volatile due to poor market transparency and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Post forecasts MY 2022/2023 soybean imports up to 2.8 million MT, while local soybean production remains flat.

Due to the poultry industry’s slow recovery and sluggish consumer demand for edible oils, no significant growth in oilseed and edible oil use is forecast for 2022/23. Likewise, soybean, canola, and palm oil imports in 2022/23 are forecast to remain similar to 2021/22 levels.

Only limited growth in soybean and vegetable oil imports is forecast for 2021/22. Rising prices and changes in taxation policies are hindering demand for meal from the poultry sector and capping growth in edible oil demand.

India’s soybean production estimate for marketing year (2020/2021 is revised upward to 11.8 million metric tons on account of higher acreage and better than expected yields.