Browse Data and Analysis

Brazil’s soybean sector is projected to grow in 2025/26, with post revising the total projected planted area to 49.1 million hectares and estimated production reaching 176 million metric tons in 2026, driven by favorable weather and technological advances.

Brazil and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are in the initial stages of potentially developing a dedicated soybean supply chain tailored to meet Chinese sustainability and quality standards.

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

The 2024 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2024 calendar year.

On April 18, 2025, the People’s Republic of China (China’s) State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) released the Announcement for Deployment of Inspection and Rectification Actions for Edible Vegetable Oils.

On April 8, 2025, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Crop Variety Registration Committee (CNCVRC) published a third variety registration list for genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans.

Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area to 48.2 million hectares (ha) in the 2025/26 season, up from an estimated 47.3 million ha in 2024/25.

Post forecasts MY 25/26 China soybean production at 19.8 million metric tons (MMT) and imports at 106 MMT. The production forecast is down slightly from MY 24/25 and the import forecast is up 2 percent year over year.

On March 4, 2025, the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) announced it was suspending soybean imports from three U.S. based entities. GACC stated that these suspensions were in response to recent, alleged detections of ergot and seed coating agents in U.S. soybean shipments.

Post increased the 2024/25 forecast for soybean planted area expansion in Brazil to 47 million hectares (HA) and soybean production to 165 million metric tons (MMT). This season sowing began optimistically, with most soybeans planted on time compared to last year.

On October 28, 2024, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) published a revised “National Standard for Seeds of Economic Crops – Part 2: Oil Species,” which will come into effect on October 1, 2025.

Soybean production for MY 24/25 is forecast slightly up at 19.9 million metric tons (MMT) based on higher yield and a planted area of 9.95 million hectares (Mha).