Browse Data and Analysis

Recovering from weather challenges in the first part of MY 24/25, Post forecasts MY 25/26 Malaysia palm oil production to increase to 18.5 million metric tons (MT).

FAS Kuala Lumpur (Post) projects a slight decrease in palm oil production in Market year (MY) 24/25 to 19.2 million metric tons (MT) on recent weather challenges and lower than average production in the beginning months of the MY. With palm oil at a premium to competing vegetable oils, Post estimates a decrease in exports of approximately 770 thousand MT for MY 24/25.

Post forecasts Malaysia’s palm oil production in MY 24/25 at 19.2 million metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 23/24 projections due to delayed effects of the El Niño season.

Post revises production estimates for MY 2023/24 down to 18.8 million tons accounting for hot and dry El Niño weather effects and limitations regarding labor. Top importing countries continue to drive demand and stocks drop to 1.83 million tons for MY 2023/24.

Fresh fruit bunch (FBB) and kernel yields are expected to remain high in MY2024/25 due to stabilized fertilizer prices and a good weather forecast. In response to the growing domestic and export demands, MY2024/25 soybean production forecast has been raised by 16 percent over the preceding year’s estimate.

Post revised the forecasted palm oil production in marketing year MY2023/24 to 19.0 million metric tons (MT) and exports to 16.6 million MT. Contrary to expectation, the El Niño weather pattern in Malaysia has so far been weak to medium intensity.

Malaysia was the 26th-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2022, totaling nearly $1.1 billion in value, and is a top prospect for exports of food and beverage ingredients because of its large and growing food processing industry.

Post forecasts MY2023/24 palm oil production up by 20 percent over the current marketing year’s estimate. Total domestic consumption is forecast marginally up, imports are expected to drop by 14 percent due to increased domestic production, but exports are forecast significantly up compared to the current marketing year’s estimate.

Post forecasts Malaysian palm oil production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 18.85 million metric tons (MT), up 702,000 MT from the previous year as the labor situation continues to improve.

Post maintains the projections for 2021/22 and updates MY 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook on production resulting from good weather conditions and an improved labor situation.

Marketing year (MY) 2022/23 palm kernel production is forecast at 62,000 metric tons (MT), down by about nine percent compared to Post’s MY2021/22 projection. This is mainly because of an annual three-month drought period (December-February) that negatively affects FFB yield, and consequently kernel yield.

Post adjusts the Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 palm oil production forecast down to 18.2 million metric tons (MT), due to ongoing labor shortages. The MY2021/22 palm oil export estimate is revised to 16 million MT, a drop of 500,000 MT due to the estimated drop in production and resumption of Indonesian palm oil exports. Palm oil prices continue to fall as key buyers, India and China, prefer soybean oil to palm oil.