Browse Data and Analysis

Corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum consumption is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 due to the appreciation of the naira, slowing food price inflation, and macroeconomic stabilization.

Imports of wheat, rice, and corn in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 are estimated to increase as the economy stabilizes, inflation decreases, and the government implements a temporary zero-duty import policy for the afore-mentioned commodities until December 31.

The 2024 crop season in Morocco is progressing under difficult conditions. Dry and hot weather during January and February has driven production to record lows, especially in the southern parts of Morocco. Post forecasts MY2024/25 production at 1.55 MMT for common wheat, 0.75 MMT for durum wheat, and 0.65 MMT for barley.

Due to rising insecurity in grain producing regions and higher input costs affecting planting decisions, corn and rice production is expected to decline in marketing year (MY) 2024/25.

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2023/24 wheat consumption to decrease to 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) or 10 percent from USDA's official estimate.

Rice import for MY 2023/24 is forecast to increase by 4 percent as flooding curbs domestic production and increases imports.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

The 2022 crop season in Morocco is progressing under difficult conditions. Dry and hot weather during January and February has driven production to record lows, especially in southern Morocco.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

Imported wheat ensures Nigeria food security amid a growing population since domestic production remains minimal.

In 2021, Nigeria is expected to face decreases in grain supplies due to conflict and economic factors exacerbated by the secondary effects of COVID-19. Internal security across the country is a serious challenge to food production especially in the corn belt.

Nigeria will rely on imports to meet its national requirements for grains (especially, wheat, corn, rice) in MY2020/21.