Browse Data and Analysis

Warm and dry summer conditions have taken a toll on EU grain production projections, especially in the case of corn. On a positive note, a surge in corn imports originating from Brazil and Ukraine, with the recent four-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have increased predictability of the EU grain market balance.

Owing to improved weather conditions, grain production in Turkey in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is projected to increase year-over-year to 17.3 million metric tons (MMT). Wheat, barley, corn, and rice production are individually projected higher from last year which was hit by intense dry weather.

Dry and warm conditions across the EU, combined with a decline in corn plantings, are anticipated to reduce the bloc’s total grain production in MY 2022/23. Nevertheless, EU exports of grains are expected to remain stable and partially replace Black Sea Region origins in international grain markets. EU grain importing Member States will expand their purchases in alternative grain suppliers to make up for the limited access to Ukrainian grain and the shorter domestic availability.

The wheat and barley harvest is continuing in Turkey, approximately two weeks behind the normal harvest schedule this year. Wheat production is forecast at 17.25 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and barley production is forecast at 7.4 MMT in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. The first corn crop planting finished with total corn production forecast at 6.2 MMT.

With improved weather conditions, wheat, barley, and rice production are forecast to increase in MY 2022/23. In contrast, corn production is forecast down as farmers switch to other more profitable crops. Overall grain production in MY 2022/23 will be influenced by rising input costs, which the Turkish government is trying to offset with higher support payments for fertilizer and diesel.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

The prospects for MY2022/23 winter grain crops remain favorable due to the relatively mild winter, sufficient soil moisture reserves, and snow cover. Higher input costs, however, may have a negative impact on the average yields due to expected lower application of inputs.

The Turkish government continues its efforts to rein in inflation, which was made worse in recent months by the steep depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the US dollar and drought-related grain production losses in MY 2021/22.