Browse Data and Analysis

Corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum consumption is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 due to the appreciation of the naira, slowing food price inflation, and macroeconomic stabilization.

Imports of wheat, rice, and corn in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 are estimated to increase as the economy stabilizes, inflation decreases, and the government implements a temporary zero-duty import policy for the afore-mentioned commodities until December 31.

Due to rising insecurity in grain producing regions and higher input costs affecting planting decisions, corn and rice production is expected to decline in marketing year (MY) 2024/25.

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2023/24 wheat consumption to decrease to 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) or 10 percent from USDA's official estimate.

Since December 2022, rainfall across most of Iraq has been positive, expected to result in favorable yields and increased production for winter crops wheat and barley, with rice expected to rebound this summer for marketing year (MY) 2023/24.

Rice import for MY 2023/24 is forecast to increase by 4 percent as flooding curbs domestic production and increases imports.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

On May 17, the Government of Iraq (GOI) announced higher purchase prices for locally-produced wheat in an effort to incentivize farmers to market their crop to the Ministry of Trade. On June 8, the GOI also passed a food security bill that allows the government to use public funds to meet urgent food needs, including issuing tenders to import wheat.

Continued drought and water shortages is affecting economic activities in Iraq, especially grain production in 2022. The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture cut agricultural cropping in irrigated areas to 50 percent less than the previous year due to shortages in surface water.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

Imported wheat ensures Nigeria food security amid a growing population since domestic production remains minimal.

Effective April 15, Iraq’s Ministry of Agriculture issued a number of decisions to restrict the transshipment of wheat and barley inside Iraq to limit the entry of crops from unknown sources.