Browse Data and Analysis

Prospects for winter grain crops in Bulgaria are currently optimistic due to favorable weather and larger planted area.

Based on the final official harvest data, the Bulgarian corn crop fell to only 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25. This is the smallest corn crop since 2012, and was impacted by intense summer heat and drought followed by adverse rainy weather during the harvest.

FAS/Sofia has revised downward its estimate for Bulgaria’s MY 2024/25 corn crop to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), which if realized would be the smallest crop in over a decade. This is due to severe summer heat and drought in July and in early August.

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

Bulgaria has enjoyed favorable weather so far in MY 2024/25 that has supported the positive development of both winter and spring grains. Currently, FAS/Sofia estimates the MY 2024/25 wheat crop at 6.9 million metric tons (MMT), slightly above last year's crop.

FAS/Sofia’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 corn production estimate is lowered to 2.5 million metric tons (MMT) based on the harvest progress to date. The corn crop suffered from severe and prolonged summer drought and high heat which reduced yields considerably.

FAS Sofia updates its forecasts for Bulgarian production of grain crops in marketing year (MY)2023/24 to 10.5 million metric tons (MMT), based on improving prospects for average yields for wheat, barley, and corn.

Dashboard that demonstrates the scope of Black Sea grain and oilseed trade. Millions of tons of grain are shipped through these international waters each year, making the Black Sea region a major supplier of agricultural commodities worldwide.

Bulgaria harvested a 26 percent lower grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 compared to MY2021/22, including reductions of 12 percent for wheat, 11 percent for barley, and 26 percent for corn.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Bulgaria expects to harvest a corn crop of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), 18 percent lower than in MY 2021/22. The decrease can be attributed to nine percent decline in area planted, yields severely impacted by the summer drought and heat, and higher pest infestation.

The prospects for MY2022/23 winter grain crops remain favorable due to the relatively mild winter, sufficient soil moisture reserves, and snow cover. Higher input costs, however, may have a negative impact on the average yields due to expected lower application of inputs.

FAS Sofia increases its estimate for wheat and barley crops to 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) and 700,000 MT, respectively, due to favorable spring weather leading to record yields.