Browse Data and Analysis

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

Serbia’s overall grain production in MY 2024/25 had mixed results as its winter crops (wheat and barley) experienced bumper crops while corn, soybean and sunflower declined for the third year in a row.

Brazil’s corn planted area and production for MY 2025/26 are expected to increase. Low stocks and strong demand led corn prices to high levels in the domestic market, growing producers’ sowing outlooks.

Corn prices in Brazil have been rising in recent months, driven by factors such as the increased prices in international markets and the devaluation of the Brazilian Real. As a result, corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) is...

With the expected end of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which severely impacted corn productivity this 2023/24 harvest, Post forecasts a year-on-year increase in corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) at 127 MMT.

Brazil consumes over 12 million tons of wheat and wheat-based products per year, which is more than the country's national production of roughly 9.5 million tons.

Serbia’s Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 wheat area is forecast at 625,000 hectares (HA), 14 percent lower than the previous year. If the predicted yield of 5 MT/HA is achieved, wheat production is expected to reach 3.1 Million Metric Tons (MMT).

Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT.

Brazil has recently started planting its corn crop for the 2023/24 season. However, due to high production costs and lower expected earnings, profit margins are under pressure. As a result, Post predicts a decrease in planted area, with production for the next season estimated to drop from 135 MMT (MY 2022/23) to 130 MMT (MY 2023/24).

With Brazil continuing to produce record corn crops, Post forecasts corn production for MY 2023/24 at 131 MMT, up 1.6 percent from the current season. However, falling profit margins and ongoing infrastructure and logistics hurdles may impact the next harvest’s outcome.

The wheat planting area for MY2023/24 is estimated at 725,000 HA, some 17 percent higher than previous marketing year. Overall production is estimated to be 3.6 MMT, which represents a 12.5 increase compared to MY2022/23.

Serbian grain exports were significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports.