Browse Data and Analysis

Continuing economic growth; increasing tourism; a healthy hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector; and a growing population will lead the UAE’s wheat and rice consumption to grow in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY).

Corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum consumption is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 due to the appreciation of the naira, slowing food price inflation, and macroeconomic stabilization.

Imports of wheat, rice, and corn in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 are estimated to increase as the economy stabilizes, inflation decreases, and the government implements a temporary zero-duty import policy for the afore-mentioned commodities until December 31.

In MY 2024/25, Post forecasts imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of all wheat, rice, corn, and barley to increase to meet high local demand. Strong tourism, population growth, and expanding poultry and dairy sectors will drive this demand.

Due to rising insecurity in grain producing regions and higher input costs affecting planting decisions, corn and rice production is expected to decline in marketing year (MY) 2024/25.

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2023/24 wheat consumption to decrease to 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) or 10 percent from USDA's official estimate.

Rice import for MY 2023/24 is forecast to increase by 4 percent as flooding curbs domestic production and increases imports.

Strong tourism, high petroleum rents, and an accompanying economic boom in the United Arab Emirates are forecast to grow the consumptive base and drive imports of wheat and rice higher in the coming marketing year.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

Imported wheat ensures Nigeria food security amid a growing population since domestic production remains minimal.