Browse Data and Analysis

The United Kingdom (UK) is forecast to have a significant increase in grain crop production in Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26. This is largely driven by a partial recovery in wheat production following a particularly low level of production in MY 2024/25.

The 2024 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2024 calendar year.

FAS/Pretoria’s Grain and Feed annual report provides information on the production, supply, and distribution for corn, wheat, and rice in South Africa for marketing year (MY) 2023/24, MY 2024/25, and MY 2025/26.

Five months into MY2024/25 the situation and outlook for the UK grain sector is starting to become clearer. Significant wheat opening stocks have partly offset concern surrounding the second smallest wheat harvest since MY1999/2000, but even the current momentum in imports means the wheat balance is looking tight.

In July 2024, falling global wheat prices triggered a wheat import duty of Rand 176.30 (USD 9.70) per metric ton for South Africa ending more than three years of duty-free imports. The higher import duty was introduced amid a 7 percent drop in wheat planted area for marketing year 2024/25.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

The UK is forecast to have one of the lowest grain crops on record in MY 2024/25 following challenging winter planting conditions, a very wet winter, and continued rains now disrupting crop management and spring plantings. Not only is this expected to significantly reduce the planted area, but also average yields.

South Africa’s corn crop in marketing year 2023/24 has been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected drop of more than 15 percent in crop volume.

MY 2022/23 has been overshadowed by the developments in Ukraine. However, high UK grain prices supported planting despite high input prices, especially for fertilizer and fuel.

The 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2022 calendar year.

South Africa is on course to produce a fourth consecutive bumper corn crop in MY 2022/23, which creates a bearish outlook on local corn prices and will limit growth in the area to be planted with corn in MY2023/24.

While the UK exited the shadow of Brexit and COVID-19 in marketing year (MY)2021/22 and put the 40-year low wheat crop of MY2020/21 behind it, the developments in Ukraine over the past few months have brought new uncertainties to the market.