Browse Data and Analysis

Adverse weather conditions and lower domestic prices will constrain Colombia's corn production in market year (MY) 2023/2024, which is estimated to remain flat at 1.5 million metric tons (MMT).

Brazil has recently started planting its corn crop for the 2023/24 season. However, due to high production costs and lower expected earnings, profit margins are under pressure. As a result, Post predicts a decrease in planted area, with production for the next season estimated to drop from 135 MMT (MY 2022/23) to 130 MMT (MY 2023/24).

FAS Ottawa forecasts total wheat production to be 31.1 million metric tons (MT), down ten percent year-over-year (y/y) on lower yields due to widespread drought across the prairie provinces.

Argentine wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is expected to drop to 14.5 million tons, 2 million tons below USDA’s official volume due to a dry environment in a vast area of the country.

FAS (Post) revises Venezuela corn and rice production higher for market year (MY) 2023/2024 due to improved access to higher-quality agricultural inputs and seeds, and favorable weather conditions.

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts for marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 are increased, while wheat production is forecast lower based on less planted area.

Improved weather forecasts are expected to lead to recoveries in grain production in Argentina. However, continued dry conditions are projected to limit planting of wheat and rice.

Wheat area rose to its highest level since 2001, at the expense of oats, rye, mixed grains, and lentils. Export volumes of wheat grain year-to-date (August to May) are up 78 percent over the same time last year, and wheat products (in grain equivalent) are up 21 percent.

With Brazil continuing to produce record corn crops, Post forecasts corn production for MY 2023/24 at 131 MMT, up 1.6 percent from the current season. However, falling profit margins and ongoing infrastructure and logistics hurdles may impact the next harvest’s outcome.

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts for marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 are revised upward, while wheat production is forecast lower at 3.4 million metric tons.

Chile is the second-largest South American market for U.S. agricultural products. Solid political institutions and a stable macroeconomic environment, combined with high consumer purchasing power, make Chile a lucrative market for U.S. producers of wheat, cheese, pet food, alcoholic beverages, and other consumer-oriented products.

FAS/Ottawa forecasts total production of wheat, corn, barley, and oats to increase one percent in MY 2023/24 from the previous year, assuming yields return closer to historic averages and a six percent increase in wheat production offsets production declines in other crops.