Browse Data and Analysis

On May 27, 2025, the Indian Metrological Department forecast an above-normal precipitation in the upcoming 2025 monsoon in most parts of the country.

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (July-June) is projected at just over 10,000 metric tons (MT), a decline from the previous year. With only about 5,000 hectares (HA) dedicated to cultivation, Ecuador’s wheat production is insufficient to meet domestic demand and thus dependent on imports.

India is on course to hit its third record wheat crop in MY 2025/2026 forecast on higher planting and optimal growing conditions.

For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Post forecasts lower rice imports than in MY 2024/25, assuming higher production based on favorable weather. Demand for wheat continues to increase and Post forecasts slightly higher imports for MY 2025/26 to align with demand.

For the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Post lowers rice harvested area and production to 11.4 million hectares and 36.6 million metric tons (MT), respectively, due to an estimated loss of around 300,000 hectares of aman season rice from two consecutive floods in August and October 2024.

On August 5, 2024, former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned after 15 years in power, following weeks of violent protests. A new Interim Government (IG) was formed on August 8, 2024. The political situation is still evolving. For...

On June 4, 2024, the Indian government released the third advance estimate for Indian crop year (ICY) 2023/2024 (July-June) estimating grain production at 328.85 million metric tons (MMT), marginally below last year level.

On April 15, 2024, the Indian Metrological Department (IMD) predicted above normal 2024 monsoon rains. FAS New Delhi (Post) market year (MY) 2024/2025 (April-March) wheat production is forecast at a record 114 million metric tons (MMT), same as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) official forecast, on higher than initially expected yields in the northern Indian states due to favorable weather through the harvest.

Bangladesh continues to increase rice production, for marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Post forecasts rice production at 37.7 million metric tons (MT). With high international prices and increased production, Post forecasts limited opportunities for Bangladesh to import rice in MY 2024/25.

In 2023, the Government of Ecuador continued to support floor prices for local production of corn, rice, and wheat, but has reduced subsidies for fertilizers, pesticides, and minor equipment for small producers.

Given record area and prospects for good yields, wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to be a record 28.8 million tons. Due to an anticipated increase in area, 2024/25 rice production is also forecast to set a record.