Browse Data and Analysis

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

Brazil’s corn planted area and production for MY 2025/26 are expected to increase. Low stocks and strong demand led corn prices to high levels in the domestic market, growing producers’ sowing outlooks.

Sustained rainfall due to a subsiding El Nino and a weak La Nina that is predicted to last until April 2025 will likely lead to increased rice and corn production in 2024/25.

Corn prices in Brazil have been rising in recent months, driven by factors such as the increased prices in international markets and the devaluation of the Brazilian Real. As a result, corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) is...

Indonesia’s 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to decline 8 percent from 2023/24, when higher demand from feed mills, consumption of wheat flour-based food from major events in early 2024, and demand for cheaper alternatives to rice drove wheat imports up to new record highs.

Driven mainly by higher demand from feed mills, higher consumption of flour-based food during the consecutive religious festivities and general election, as well as demand for alternative staples cheaper than rice and trending flour-based foods, Indonesian wheat imports in 2023/24 are estimated to break record levels at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT).

With the expected end of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which severely impacted corn productivity this 2023/24 harvest, Post forecasts a year-on-year increase in corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) at 127 MMT.

Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT.

The Red Sea conflict is not expected to pose significant threats to Indonesian grain imports. Driven by demand from the recent general elections, as well as high local corn prices, imports of wheat for food and feed consumption are estimated to...

The El Nino climate pattern is expected to reduce Indonesia's 2022/23 rice and corn production. Post estimates Indonesia's 2022/23 corn production to decline to 12.3 million metric tons (MMT) compared to the previous estimate of 12.9 MMT.

Brazil has recently started planting its corn crop for the 2023/24 season. However, due to high production costs and lower expected earnings, profit margins are under pressure. As a result, Post predicts a decrease in planted area, with production for the next season estimated to drop from 135 MMT (MY 2022/23) to 130 MMT (MY 2023/24).

Economic slowdowns in Indonesia’s export destination countries curbed Indonesia’s imports and consumption of wheat.