Browse Data and Analysis

Sustained rainfall due to a subsiding El Nino and a weak La Nina that is predicted to last until April 2025 will likely lead to increased rice and corn production in 2024/25.

For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Post estimates that the wheat area harvested will total 193,000 hectares (ha), representing a 1.0 percent decrease from MY 2024/25 due to high input costs and low prices.

Indonesia’s 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to decline 8 percent from 2023/24, when higher demand from feed mills, consumption of wheat flour-based food from major events in early 2024, and demand for cheaper alternatives to rice drove wheat imports up to new record highs.

Driven mainly by higher demand from feed mills, higher consumption of flour-based food during the consecutive religious festivities and general election, as well as demand for alternative staples cheaper than rice and trending flour-based foods, Indonesian wheat imports in 2023/24 are estimated to break record levels at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT).

The Red Sea conflict is not expected to pose significant threats to Indonesian grain imports. Driven by demand from the recent general elections, as well as high local corn prices, imports of wheat for food and feed consumption are estimated to...

For MY 2024/25, Post estimates that wheat area harvested will total 195,000 hectares (ha), a 2.5 percent decrease from MY 2023/24 to due to high input costs and low prices. Wheat production will reach 1.17 million metric tons (MMT).

The El Nino climate pattern is expected to reduce Indonesia's 2022/23 rice and corn production. Post estimates Indonesia's 2022/23 corn production to decline to 12.3 million metric tons (MMT) compared to the previous estimate of 12.9 MMT.

Economic slowdowns in Indonesia’s export destination countries curbed Indonesia’s imports and consumption of wheat.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post forecasts wheat area harvested will reach 215,000 hectares (ha) and production will total 1.32 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from MY 2022/23 as production was limited by the high costs of inputs.

High commodity prices in the international market during the last term of 2022 are expected to impede the growth of 2022/23 Indonesian wheat imports and curb the use of wheat in feed formulation.

Market uncertainty and price volatility in international markets led to flour mills importing more wheat in 2021/22 to hold them over in case of future shortages. Therefore, Post revises 2021/22 wheat imports to 11.3 MMT, up 12 percent from its previous estimate of 10.7 MMT.

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.