Browse Data and Analysis

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

While per capita grain consumption in Korea remains steady, or declining in the case of rice, increased manufacturing of K-food for exports drives total consumption, offsetting decreases in other sectors.

Brazil’s corn planted area and production for MY 2025/26 are expected to increase. Low stocks and strong demand led corn prices to high levels in the domestic market, growing producers’ sowing outlooks.

Corn prices in Brazil have been rising in recent months, driven by factors such as the increased prices in international markets and the devaluation of the Brazilian Real. As a result, corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) is...

Market share of U.S. corn in South Korea is expected to remain strong in MY 2024/25 after rebounding to 20 percent in MY 2023/24. Domestic rice production continues its slow decline as the government incentivizes farmers to switch to planting alternate crops.

With the expected end of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which severely impacted corn productivity this 2023/24 harvest, Post forecasts a year-on-year increase in corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) at 127 MMT.

The Korean government’s policy incentivizing farmers to replace rice acreage with other crops is the driving force behind record low rice planting and production projected in marketing year (MY) 2024/25.

Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT.

Brazil has recently started planting its corn crop for the 2023/24 season. However, due to high production costs and lower expected earnings, profit margins are under pressure. As a result, Post predicts a decrease in planted area, with production for the next season estimated to drop from 135 MMT (MY 2022/23) to 130 MMT (MY 2023/24).

Rice production in Korea is forecast to be gradually down in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 on reduced acreage in response to government incentives encouraging farmers to switch to other grains, such as wheat and soybean.

With Brazil continuing to produce record corn crops, Post forecasts corn production for MY 2023/24 at 131 MMT, up 1.6 percent from the current season. However, falling profit margins and ongoing infrastructure and logistics hurdles may impact the next harvest’s outcome.

FAS/Seoul forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/24 corn imports to remain flat, with U.S. market share gradually recovering towards the end of the year. Wheat imports are expected to decline towards the long term average as feed wheat loses a temporary price advantage over corn.