Browse Data and Analysis

Continuing economic growth; increasing tourism; a healthy hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector; and a growing population will lead the UAE’s wheat and rice consumption to grow in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY).

FAS Rangoon forecasts Burma’s rice and corn production to increase in MY 2025/26 due to improvement in average yield, driven by favorable weather and flood recovery compared to MY 2024/25.

Exporters and importers continue to face much uncertainty due to the military regime’s foreign currency control policies and continuing conflict between the regime and ethnic armed forces. FAS Rangoon forecasts Burma’s MY 2024/25 rice exports to recover to 1.7 MMT amid high stocks and expected relaxation of export controls. MY 2024/25 corn exports and wheat imports will remain flat.

In MY 2024/25, Post forecasts imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of all wheat, rice, corn, and barley to increase to meet high local demand. Strong tourism, population growth, and expanding poultry and dairy sectors will drive this demand.

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice exports, corn exports, and wheat import smaller in MY 2023/24. Exporters and importers continue to face a lot of uncertainties with the continuing changing policies on export/import procedures and foreign currency controls.

Strong tourism, high petroleum rents, and an accompanying economic boom in the United Arab Emirates are forecast to grow the consumptive base and drive imports of wheat and rice higher in the coming marketing year.

FAS Rangoon forecasts Burma’s corn production lower due to rising production costs, unstable security conditions in some production areas, and unfavorable weather especially in Shan State.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice and corn exports larger in MY 2022/23 due to strong demand from African, EU, and ASEAN countries. Post forecasts Burma’s wheat imports down in MY 2022/23 due to low domestic demand, restrictions on buying of foreign currency, and changing import policies.

Burma’s corn production is estimated at 2.57 million metric tons in both MY 2020/21 and MY 2021/22 due to high price incentives.

The Burmese military’s February 1, 2021 coup will negatively impact agricultural trade at least in the short-term due to the country-wide Civil Disobedience Movement, which involves widespread labor strikes in opposition to the military’s action.

The United Arab Emirates’ consumption and imports of grain and feed are projected to increase over the coming year.