Browse Data and Analysis

Continuing economic growth; increasing tourism; a healthy hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector; and a growing population will lead the UAE’s wheat and rice consumption to grow in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY).

EU grain production in MY 2024/25 is expected to decline from last year’s levels due to a combination of smaller area planted to grains and lower yields affecting all grains except for barley and oats.

In MY 2024/25, EU grain production is anticipated to exceed the previous season’s levels and amount to 274 MMT. Excessive rain currently prevails in the EU’s northwest, hampering winter grains development and impeding spring planting operations.

In MY 2024/25, Post forecasts imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of all wheat, rice, corn, and barley to increase to meet high local demand. Strong tourism, population growth, and expanding poultry and dairy sectors will drive this demand.

Extreme weather conditions across the EU reduced grain production projections in MY 2023/24, although production is still anticipated to exceed MY 2022/23 levels. EU grain export expectations have deteriorated based on third country competition in...

Weather conditions ranging from excessive heat to cooler than average temperatures, and from drought to excessive moisture, have curbed MY 2023/24 EU winter grain production expectations.

In MY 2023/24, EU’s grain production is anticipated to reach 285 MMT, up from the 267 MMT registered the previous season, when a severe drought pushed yields down. Favorable initial crop development conditions are reported across the EU, although spring rains in the EU’s southwest will be critical to replenish soil moisture and allow for yields to bounce back to average levels.

Strong tourism, high petroleum rents, and an accompanying economic boom in the United Arab Emirates are forecast to grow the consumptive base and drive imports of wheat and rice higher in the coming marketing year.

Warm and dry summer conditions have taken a toll on EU grain production projections, especially in the case of corn. On a positive note, a surge in corn imports originating from Brazil and Ukraine, with the recent four-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have increased predictability of the EU grain market balance.

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.

On June 29, 2022, the European Commission (EC) approved one genetically engineered (GE) crop (maize) for food and animal feed. The authorization was published in the European Union’s Official Journal on July 1, 2022 and remains valid for 10 years.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.