Browse Data and Analysis

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

Unfavorable weather conditions in autumn 2024 resulted in decreased winter wheat area. Functioning maritime logistics in MY2023/24 and the first half of MY2024/25 kept shipping rates stable and have allowed Ukraine to quicky and cost efficiently export large volumes of commodities to distant markets.

Continuing economic growth; increasing tourism; a healthy hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector; and a growing population will lead the UAE’s wheat and rice consumption to grow in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY).

Post’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 production estimate for all grains is 13 percent lower than its MY2023/24 estimate. With MY2024/25 beginning stocks at minimum levels, Post’s export estimates are 26 percent lower than its estimates for the previous MY.

Ukraine’s marketing year (MY)2023/24 has concluded for wheat, barley, and rye, but is still ongoing for corn. Ukraine established a stable export corridor in the Black Sea, allowing its major marine ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny) to keep grain exports flowing at rates slightly higher than in MY2022/23.

In MY 2024/25, Post forecasts imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of all wheat, rice, corn, and barley to increase to meet high local demand. Strong tourism, population growth, and expanding poultry and dairy sectors will drive this demand.

Ukraine’s MY2023/24 harvest features higher grain production volumes across the board than the previous year. By the end of 2023, Ukraine independently resumed operations of its major marine ports on the Black Sea, Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi...

Marketing year 2023/24 is expected to be another favorable year for grain production in Ukraine, with production volumes exceeding the ones for the previous year, particularly for corn. Ukraine currently has higher-than-normal beginning stocks for...

This report contains revised production and export forecasts for MY2023/24 by Post

The full-scale invasion launched by Russia in February 2022 sent seismic shocks throughout the Ukrainian economy, with agriculture bearing a direct impact. It led to a breakdown of farming operations due to the fighting and shelling on farm lands, while crippling agricultural logistics out of the country, leaving farmers unable to sell their crops at reasonable prices.

Strong tourism, high petroleum rents, and an accompanying economic boom in the United Arab Emirates are forecast to grow the consumptive base and drive imports of wheat and rice higher in the coming marketing year.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.