Browse Data and Analysis

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

Unfavorable weather conditions in autumn 2024 resulted in decreased winter wheat area. Functioning maritime logistics in MY2023/24 and the first half of MY2024/25 kept shipping rates stable and have allowed Ukraine to quicky and cost efficiently export large volumes of commodities to distant markets.

FAS (Post) forecasts Venezuelan market year (MY) 2025/2026 corn production to reach 1.2 million metric tons (MMT), a 14 percent decrease year-on-year due to a significant drop in seed availability for the summer planting season.

Post’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 production estimate for all grains is 13 percent lower than its MY2023/24 estimate. With MY2024/25 beginning stocks at minimum levels, Post’s export estimates are 26 percent lower than its estimates for the previous MY.

FAS estimates Venezuela corn production at 1.36 million metric tons for the new market year (MY) 2024/2025 on a planted area of 350,000 hectares. Significant economic uncertainty persists following the July 28, 2024, presidential election, and higher inflation and a scarcity of U.S. dollars will likely inhibit increased corn acreage and limit yields.

Ukraine’s marketing year (MY)2023/24 has concluded for wheat, barley, and rye, but is still ongoing for corn. Ukraine established a stable export corridor in the Black Sea, allowing its major marine ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny) to keep grain exports flowing at rates slightly higher than in MY2022/23.

In market year (MY) 2024/2025, FAS (Post) forecasts Venezuela’s corn production to reach 1.36 million metric tons (MMT), 5 percent higher year-on-year due to favorable weather conditions. Production increases are likely to increase despite low international prices and limited financing that will likely discourage expanded planting area.

Ukraine’s MY2023/24 harvest features higher grain production volumes across the board than the previous year. By the end of 2023, Ukraine independently resumed operations of its major marine ports on the Black Sea, Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi...

Marketing year 2023/24 is expected to be another favorable year for grain production in Ukraine, with production volumes exceeding the ones for the previous year, particularly for corn. Ukraine currently has higher-than-normal beginning stocks for...

FAS (Post) revises Venezuela corn and rice production higher for market year (MY) 2023/2024 due to improved access to higher-quality agricultural inputs and seeds, and favorable weather conditions.

This report contains revised production and export forecasts for MY2023/24 by Post

The full-scale invasion launched by Russia in February 2022 sent seismic shocks throughout the Ukrainian economy, with agriculture bearing a direct impact. It led to a breakdown of farming operations due to the fighting and shelling on farm lands, while crippling agricultural logistics out of the country, leaving farmers unable to sell their crops at reasonable prices.