Browse Data and Analysis

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

Vietnam’s livestock and aquaculture sectors expanded in Calendar Year (CY) 2024 on steady economic growth and lower feed prices. Feed importers have increased purchases and diversified suppliers.

Brazil’s corn planted area and production for MY 2025/26 are expected to increase. Low stocks and strong demand led corn prices to high levels in the domestic market, growing producers’ sowing outlooks.

Corn prices in Brazil have been rising in recent months, driven by factors such as the increased prices in international markets and the devaluation of the Brazilian Real. As a result, corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) is...

With the expected end of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which severely impacted corn productivity this 2023/24 harvest, Post forecasts a year-on-year increase in corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) at 127 MMT.

In 2023, feed demand was low due to weak demand in Europe and the United States for Vietnamese produced aquaculture products. Post expects aquaculture and livestock production to rebound in the in MY 2024/25 increasing overall feed demand and as a result also increasing corn consumption. As domestic corn production remains uncompetitive with foreign imports, corn imports are forecast to grow Wheat imports are forecast to decline due to market volatility.

Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT.

Brazil has recently started planting its corn crop for the 2023/24 season. However, due to high production costs and lower expected earnings, profit margins are under pressure. As a result, Post predicts a decrease in planted area, with production for the next season estimated to drop from 135 MMT (MY 2022/23) to 130 MMT (MY 2023/24).

In the first half of 2023, the Vietnam livestock and aquaculture industry faced numerous challenges which reduced feed demand including escalating input costs, African Swine Fever (ASF), market price volatility, weak demand, and intense competition from imported products.

With Brazil continuing to produce record corn crops, Post forecasts corn production for MY 2023/24 at 131 MMT, up 1.6 percent from the current season. However, falling profit margins and ongoing infrastructure and logistics hurdles may impact the next harvest’s outcome.

Brazilian corn and wheat productions continue to exceed expectations, setting record-breaking harvests. In contrast, Brazil is expected to produce its lowest rice crop in 25 years due to a period of prolonged drought in the south and low profitability for farmers.

Growth in Vietnam’s economy, including a rebound in tourism, is expected to fuel protein demands which will increase demand for feed grains in Market Year (MY) 2023/24. Post forecasts feed demand up to 27.7 million metric tons (MMT), a three percent year on year increase.