Browse Data and Analysis

FAS New Delhi expects India’s peanut oilseed production to rise by 18 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 and reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) due to higher market prices, an increased planting area of 5.6 million hectares, and the use of high-yielding varieties that produced higher yields.

In early August, Turkiye announced that it will open a lower-duty quota for 1.0 million metric tons of sunflower seed or crude sunflower oil equivalent, starting from January-April of next year.

Assuming the return of more favorable growing conditions and yields that are in line with historical averages, Turkey is expected to produce more sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and soybeans in MY 2024/25 compared to the previous year, which was marked by dry weather conditions in parts of the country.

FAS New Delhi estimates India’s rapeseed-mustard production for marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (October-September) at 11.9 million metric tons (MMT), harvested from 9.3 million hectares following favorable cold weather during the rabi crop season.

FAS New Delhi’s forecast for India’s soybean oilseed production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is revised to 12 million metric tons (MMT), slightly lower than the MY 2022/23 at 12.4 MMT which accounts for the impact of the El Nino weather pattern.

MY 2023/24 sunflowerseed production is forecast at 1.6 million metric tons (MMT), which is down nearly 20 percent year-over-year because of drought-related losses in Thrace, Turkey’s leading sunflower producing region.

India’s soybean oilseed and rapeseed production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) increased to 12.4 and 11.8 million metric tons (MMT) respectively due to favorable weather conditions.

Turkiye announced a three-month export ban on olive oil in bulk and in barrels due to the shortage of olive oil production in Mediterranean countries and subsequent negative effects on domestic prices.

India’s rapeseed and mustard (rapeseed-mustard) production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) is forecast to drop slightly to 11.4 million metric tons, harvested from a record 9.2 million hectares following a favorable monsoon performance in the state of Rajasthan.

On January 11, 2023, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry/Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) issued Public Notice No. 50/2015-20. The notice specifies that India amended its previous tariff-rate quota of 2 million metric tons for crude soybean oil, previously allowable at a zero percent duty through Indian fiscal years (IFY) 2022/23 and 2023/24 (April 1-March 31).

India’s soybean, peanut, and sunflowerseed production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is estimated at 11.1 million metric tons (MMT), 6.65 MMT, and 200,000 metric tons, respectively, reflecting heavy late season rainfall in September and October that impacted yields and crop quality.

India’s soybean production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is slightly lowered to 11.4 million metric tons (MMT) because of the impacts of the delayed and erratic 2022 monsoon. Cumulative edible oil imports in the October 2021 to June 2022 period have increased one percent to 10.l MMT, and crude palm oil remains the primary consumed oil.