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Fluid milk production will be up slightly in 2023 as a greater number of heifers enter milk production. Demand for dairy products in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional food service industries will be pushed by an influx of foreign tourists, although surplus drinking milk will still be diverted to further processing into butter and non-fat dry milk for which ending stocks will finish higher in 2022.

Taiwan MY 2023 fluid milk production is forecast to increase to 465,000 MT. During the supply chain disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, milk imports declined by 17 percent in MY 2021, pushing local producers to exceed production expectations to meet high demand.

FAS Manila forecasts demand for dairy products to increase 3 percent in 2023, the same percentage of increase as 2022, with a total demand of 3 million metric tons (MT) in liquid milk equivalent (LME). The Philippines imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement, as domestic production cannot meet demand. Following demand increases, dairy imports will recover in 2023 as the economy improves, most of the population is vaccinated, and customers return to restaurants.

The Philippines supplies only one percent of its total dairy requirement, which makes it a competitive market for imported dairy products. The United States and New Zealand are the top two suppliers, the U.S. being the leader. Post sees overall dairy imports recovering in 2022, as the economy reopens, most of the population becomes vaccinated, and business operations expand, all of which will accelerate dairy consumption.

On September 30th, in a revision to its January announcement, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries affirmed that it will increase the tariff-rate quota volumes for butter to 9,788 MT but will hold non-fat dry milk (NFDM) at 750 MT for Japanese fiscal year (JFY) 2021. Total planned imports are estimated to be about 137,000 MT (milk equivalent).