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Post forecasts an increase in cattle production by 2.8 percent in 2022 and one percent in 2023, driven by global demand, elevated beef prices, and a general trend of expansion in the sector. Nevertheless, increasing production costs, especially feed prices, inflation, and unstable weather are expected to pose challenges to cattle ranchers.

Further contraction in the Canadian herd is forecast in 2023 driven by lingering impacts from the 2021 drought. A smaller cow herd will result in a reduced calf crop and lower beef production compared to 2022.

Total meat consumption in Venezuela has declined 68.9 percent since 2013 as a result of the economic collapse. However, a better economic environment since 2019 has led to a stabilization of beef production and significant growth in chicken production. In 2022, beef production is forecast to grow 5 percent from 2021 to 287,803 MT.

Paraguayan beef exports in 2023 are forecast to decline to 390,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, the second drop in a row thanks to declining cattle production. The country is suffering from the third consecutive year of La Niña conditions, which leads to dry weather in most regions.

Argentine cattle stock, cattle slaughter, beef production, consumption and export volumes are all forecast to remain practically unchanged in 2023. China is expected to continue as the main export destination, potentially accounting for more than 70 percent of the 770,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE) projected exports. Despite strong global beef demand and good prices, current, government imposed, export restrictions are projected to prevent Argentina from shipping larger volumes.

Post forecasts Mexico’s calf crop at 8.45 million head for 2023. Post forecasts cattle exports for 2023 at 1.2 million head, a slight increase from the 2022 estimate. Post forecasts beef production for 2023 at 2.22 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE), almost a two percent increase from 2022.