Browse Data and Analysis

New Zealand milk production is forecasted to fall slightly in 2023. Although milk prices are at extremely high levels and expected to remain elevated, a number of issues are limiting the production response. This includes a slowly declining national herd, and also that on-farm inflation is expected to remain high as a result of the weak NZ dollar impacting imported input prices, as well as strong global fuel prices.

New Zealand is expected to have already reached “peak” cattle numbers, and FAS/Wellington anticipates a very gradual decline in both dairy and beef cow numbers in the near future. One of the major influences on this is New Zealand governmental policy, and in particular regulations regarding livestock exclusion around certain water sources, as well as proposed pricing of agricultural emissions.