Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Dar es Salaam expects a ten percent decline in corn exports for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 as production decreases and strict export permit procedures continue to stymie shipments.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (July-June) is projected at just over 10,000 metric tons (MT), a decline from the previous year. With only about 5,000 hectares (HA) dedicated to cultivation, Ecuador’s wheat production is insufficient to meet domestic demand and thus dependent on imports.

In 2023, the Government of Ecuador continued to support floor prices for local production of corn, rice, and wheat, but has reduced subsidies for fertilizers, pesticides, and minor equipment for small producers.

FAS Dar es Salaam anticipates corn production will decline 6 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 as farmers switch to alternative crops due to low corn prices. MY 2024/25 wheat imports are anticipated to reach 1.3 million metric tons (MT) as rising incomes and growth in the tourism and hospitality sectors increase demand for wheat products.

MY 2023/24 corn production is anticipated to increase roughly 3 percent to 6.1 million metric tons (MT) as more farmers switch to corn production in response to high prices. Post anticipates production will remain below historical levels due to high fertilizer prices and fall army worm outbreaks.

In 2022, the Government of Ecuador continued to support floor prices for local production of corn, rice, and wheat as well as began subsidizing the price of fertilizers for small producers.

The Government of Ecuador continues defining the yearly minimum price for local production of corn, rice, and wheat. The Minister of Agriculture supports the reduction of corn area and the shift to other crops that are mainly focused on the export market.

MY2022/23 corn production is forecast to decrease by approximately 16 percent to 5.9 million metric tons (MMT) due to drought conditions, fall armyworm infestations, and high fertilizer prices.

MY 2021/22 wheat production is expected to decrease by 22.2 percent to 70,000 MT, while consumption is projected to increase by 2.9 percent to 1.2 million MT.

The Government of Ecuador has fully eliminated the support program for corn production, but continues to define the yearly minimum price for producers

In Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21, corn production fell due to post-harvest loss, ineffective extension services, unreliable markets, pests, and diseases.

Uncertainty of government corn policies and price support mechanisms contributed to decreased production with farmers retiring or shifting to more profitable crops.