Browse Data and Analysis

Major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.

Senegal rice MY2025/26 area and milled rice production are both forecast to increase about seven percent to 245,000 HA and 645,000 MT, respectively. In addition, the 23 percent farm gate price increase since 2022 will probably continue to motivate farmers to plant more.

Unfavorable weather conditions in autumn 2024 resulted in decreased winter wheat area. Functioning maritime logistics in MY2023/24 and the first half of MY2024/25 kept shipping rates stable and have allowed Ukraine to quicky and cost efficiently export large volumes of commodities to distant markets.

Post’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 production estimate for all grains is 13 percent lower than its MY2023/24 estimate. With MY2024/25 beginning stocks at minimum levels, Post’s export estimates are 26 percent lower than its estimates for the previous MY.

Ukraine’s wheat, barley, and rye harvest for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 has concluded. MY2024/25 corn production is smaller due to lower yields. Post estimates MY2024/25 beginning stocks for grains at minimal levels, as Ukraine was able to maintain an independent export corridor out of its Odesa region ports for most of MY2023/24.

Ukraine introduced procedures for the approval of minimum export prices for selected bulk commodities, including grains, oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals, walnuts, and honey.

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

Ukraine’s marketing year (MY)2023/24 has concluded for wheat, barley, and rye, but is still ongoing for corn. Ukraine established a stable export corridor in the Black Sea, allowing its major marine ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny) to keep grain exports flowing at rates slightly higher than in MY2022/23.

Governments’ support for inputs and rice production have lifted area harvested and yields, boosting production across much of the region. Marketing year (MY) 2024/25 area harvested for rice in Senegal, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali is projected up 1.7 percent year-over-year.

Grain production in Ukraine has remained unprofitable since the Russia’s invasion, and this is expected to translate into decreased grain area for MY2024/25. With CY2024 yields forecast below the previous near-record-breaking CY2023, the total grain MY2024/25 production volume is forecast to be lower than for the previous marketing year.

Ukraine’s MY2023/24 harvest features higher grain production volumes across the board than the previous year. By the end of 2023, Ukraine independently resumed operations of its major marine ports on the Black Sea, Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi...

Marketing year 2023/24 is expected to be another favorable year for grain production in Ukraine, with production volumes exceeding the ones for the previous year, particularly for corn. Ukraine currently has higher-than-normal beginning stocks for...