Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Mexico expects slower growth in the vegetable oil and oil meal sectors in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 compared to recent years, given potential declines in consumer purchasing power, a forecast slowdown in Mexico’s economy, and persistent inflation.

Mexico’s sugar production is forecast at 6.25 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) in marketing year 2023/24 (October-September), an increase of nearly 3 percent compared to MY 2022/23 based on lower fertilizer costs and a return to average weather conditions.

On March 19, 2023, Mexico’s Federal Commission for the Protection against Sanitary Risks (COFEPRIS) announced the annual import quota for two types of the agrochemical glyphosate.

Mexico’s food processing industry is the third-largest in the Americas behind the United States and Brazil and is among the top 15 worldwide.

FAS Mexico forecasts for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 reductions in production, consumption, and trade due to low domestic and global demand for textiles and Government of Mexico (GOM) refusal to approve new genetically engineered (GE) seeds.

On Friday, March 24, 2023, the Federal Registry published to the addition of “Article 216 Bis” to the General Health Law related to trans fats. The addendum will regulate the use of trans fats in food processing, mandating that the fatty acid content should not exceed 2 percent of the product’s total nutritional value.

On March 19, 2023, Mexico’s Federal Commission for the Protection against Sanitary Risks (COFEPRIS) announced the annual import quota for two types of the agrochemical glyphosate.

Due to continued elevated agricultural input costs, Mexico’s corn production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 27.4 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the year prior. Lower than expected planting intentions data accounts for slightly lower rice and wheat production forecasts.

On February 13, 2023, Mexico published a modified 2023 Corn Decree in the Diario Official Federal (DOF). The new Presidential decree abrogates the 2020 GE Corn Decree and is immediately effective on February 14, 2023.

In 2023, Mexico’s beef production is forecast to slightly increase, but faces slower consumption growth on a year-to-year basis as food inflation soars. As herd numbers increase, overall cattle slaughter is expected to rise. Carcass weights are expected to marginally decrease in 2023 and are offset by larger slaughter numbers of slightly younger animals.

Mexico’s chicken meat production is forecast to increase by three percent in 2023. Although chicken meat is one of the most impacted proteins during Mexico’s inflation crisis, consumption per capita continues to increase, albeit at a slower pace on a year-to-year basis.

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts are revised downward in marketing year MY 2022/23, while the wheat production estimate is increased to 3.6 MMT.