Browse Data and Analysis

Post estimates Argentine wheat production to rebound to 19.5 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, resulting in wheat exports of 13.7 MMT (including wheat flour as its wheat equivalent).

FAS Astana estimates wheat production at 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. FAS Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for MY 2023/2024.

Post lowers its 2022/2023 estimate for Argentine soybean production to 23.9 million metric tons (MMT). This production estimate is the lowest in 24 year and the yield estimate is the lowest in almost 50 years. As a result of the drought, Post estimates that Argentina will need to import a record 11 MMT of soybeans to achieve a crush of 29.5 MMT.

On February 28, 2023, Argentina’s National Agri-Food Health and Quality Service (SENASA) self-suspended poultry exports following the detection of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry.

After three years of dry weather conditions which have challenged the Argentine beef cattle industry, Post estimates that Argentine cattle slaughter and beef production will both drop in 2023, in line with official USDA estimates.

FAS-Astana estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat production reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. In addition to wheat, barley production also recovered due to favorable weather and precipitation conditions in northern grain producing regions.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 6.2 million tons (including wheat flour), 1.3 million tons lower than USDA’s official volume because of smaller beginning stocks, larger domestic consumption and larger ending stocks.

Dry weather and high temperatures in the last months of 2022 have damaged the Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 Argentine soybean crop, particularly affecting first crop soybeans within a 125 kilometer radius of Rosario, Santa Fe Province.

On December 29, 2022, the Ministry of Trade and Integration announced the first stage of 2023 meat and poultry quotas by HS code for historic suppliers (i.e., importers). The first stage approved the distribution of 2,835 tons of beef and 31,500 tons of poultry.

Argentine imports of consumer-oriented food and beverages in 2023 are projected to remain flat at 2022 levels, due to continuing economic uncertainty, currency controls, weak consumer spending, and the expectation of high inflation.

For Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23, Post forecasts fresh deciduous fruit production to rebound to 535,000 MT for apples and 700,000 MT for pears due to favorable weather conditions.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post forecasts fresh lemon production to decrease to 1.77 million metric tons (MMT) due to unfavorable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to decrease to 800,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to decrease to 380,000 MT due to heavy hailstorms in July 2022 in northeastern Argentina, which caused fruit loss and may have damaged trees.