Brazil: Grain and Feed Update

Post lowers its corn production forecast for market year (MY) 2020/21 (March 2021 – February 2022) to 94 million metric tons (MMT), a reduction of 11 MMT from Post’s April projection. The change is based on the deteriorating yield outlook for second-crop “safrinha” corn after widespread delayed planting and persistent dry conditions in the major production regions. Post raises its estimate of market year MY 2020/21 (April 2021 – March 2022) rice production (milled equivalent) to 7.9 MMT, which is 425,000 MT higher than Post’s last estimate. Post maintains its forecast for MY 2021/22 (October 2021 – September 2022) wheat area at 2.6 MHa, as record prices continue to incentivize expansion. Given a short delay in planting in Rio Grande do Sul due to dry conditions, Post lowers its projection for MY 2021/22 Brazilian wheat production by 200,000 MT, to 6.85 MMT, which would still set a new record for the crop.