Australia: Grain and Feed Update

After a challenging start to the winter crop season in the southern production regions—due to low soil moisture and below-average rainfall—widespread rain in the first two weeks of July has improved conditions. Combined with a favorable rainfall outlook for the months ahead, above-average wheat and barley production is forecast. FAS/Canberra projects a rise in wheat exports in MY 2025/26, following weaker than expected shipments during the first eight months of MY 2024/25. Higher ending stocks for MY 2024/25 will boost wheat available for export for the forecast year. In contrast, barley exports are forecast to decline in MY 2025/26 due to strong export volumes so far in MY 2024/25, tightening supply for the forecast year. Sorghum production and exports are forecast to increase in MY 2025/26, supported by positive conditions ahead of planting. Conversely, rice production and exports are expected to fall sharply due to depleted irrigation water storage, which is likely to significantly reduce the planted area.